Modelling inputs

This page documents the data collated and used within the project.

Demand data

Percentage of active smokers

Source: Fingertips

Numerator: Self-reported active smokers in the GP Patient Survey (GPPS).

Denominator: Total number of GPPS respondents.

Proportion of population by age band

Source: Patients registered at a General Practice

Numerator: Sum of population into 10 year age bands (0-9 years up to 90+ years) or into 3 broader age bands (0-29 years, 30-59 years, and 60+ years).

Denominator: Total population.

Proportion of resident population within the most and least deprived quintiles

Source: ONS Indices of Deprivation 2019 by LSOA

Calculation description: LSOAs are attributed to deprivation quintile based on the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) Score. For 2011 to 2020, the population mid-year estimates (based on the 2011 census) for LSOAs are summed to Integrated Care System (2022) using a lookup stored on the ONS Geography Portal.

For 2021 and 2022, the Local Authority District (LAD) populations are used for each of the two years. For each age band within each LAD, the proportion of the LAD population within each LSOA is calculated using the 2020 mid-year estimates, and these proportions are applied to the 2021 and 2022 LAD populations. The populations are then summed to ICS geographies using the lookup above.

Numerator: Total resident population within each deprivation quintile.

Denominator: Total resident population.

Atrial fibrillation: QOF prevalence

Source: Quality and Outcomes Framework

Numerator: Patients with atrial fibrillation, as recorded on practice disease registers (Quality and Outcomes Framework).

Denominator: Total practice list size.

Obesity: QOF prevalence (18+ yrs)

Source: Quality and Outcomes Framework

Numerator: Patients aged 18 and over with a BMI of 30 or above.

Denominator: Total number of patients aged 18 or over registered with the practice.

Hypertension: QOF prevalence

Source: Quality and Outcomes Framework

Numerator: Patients with hypertension, as recorded on practice disease registers (Quality and Outcomes Framework).

Denominator: Total practice list size.

Asthma: QOF prevalence

Source: Quality and Outcomes Framework

Numerator: Patients with asthma, as recorded on practice disease registers (Quality and Outcomes Framework).

Denominator: Total practice list size.

Cancer: QOF prevalence

Source: Quality and Outcomes Framework

Numerator: Patients with cancer, as recorded on practice disease registers (Quality and Outcomes Framework).

Denominator: Total practice list size.

Coronary heart disease: QOF prevalence

Source: Quality and Outcomes Framework

Numerator: Patients with CHD, as recorded on practice disease registers (Quality and Outcomes Framework).

Denominator: Total practice list size.

Chronic kidney disease: QOF prevalence (18+ yrs)

Source: Quality and Outcomes Framework

Numerator: Patients aged 18 and over with CKD, as recorded on practice disease registers (Quality and Outcomes Framework).

Denominator: All patients aged 18 and over.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: QOF prevalence

Source: Quality and Outcomes Framework

Numerator: Patients with COPD, as recorded on practice disease registers (Quality and Outcomes Framework).

Denominator: Total practice list size.

Dementia: QOF prevalence

Source: Quality and Outcomes Framework

Numerator: Patients with dementia, as recorded on practice disease registers (Quality and Outcomes Framework).

Denominator: Total practice list size.

Diabetes mellitus: QOF prevalence (17+ yrs)

Source: Quality and Outcomes Framework

Numerator: Patients aged 17 and over with diabetes mellitus, as recorded on practice disease registers (Quality and Outcomes Framework).

Denominator: All registered patients aged 17 and over.

Epilepsy: QOF prevalence (18+ yrs)

Source: Quality and Outcomes Framework

Numerator: Patients aged 18 and over with epilepsy, as recorded on practice disease registers (Quality and Outcomes Framework).

Denominator: All registered patients aged 18 and over.

Heart failure: QOF prevalence

Source: Quality and Outcomes Framework

Numerator: Patients with heart failure, as recorded on practice disease registers (Quality and Outcomes Framework).

Denominator: Total practice list size.

Osteoporosis: QOF prevalence (50+ yrs)

Source: Quality and Outcomes Framework

Numerator: Patients aged 50 and over with osteoporosis, as recorded on practice disease registers (Quality and Outcomes Framework).

Denominator: All registered patients aged 50 and over.

Peripheral arterial disease: QOF prevalence

Source: Quality and Outcomes Framework

Numerator: Patients with peripheral arterial disease, as recorded on practice disease registers (Quality and Outcomes Framework).

Denominator: Total practice list size.

Palliative care: QOF prevalence

Source: Quality and Outcomes Framework

Numerator: Patients with palliative care, as recorded on practice disease registers (Quality and Outcomes Framework).

Denominator: Total practice list size.

Rheumatoid arthritis: QOF prevalence (16+ yrs)

Source: Quality and Outcomes Framework

Numerator: Patients aged 16 and over with rheumatoid arthritis, as recorded on practice disease registers (Quality and Outcomes Framework).

Denominator: All registered patients aged 16 and over.

Stroke and transient ischaemic attack: QOF prevalence

Source: Quality and Outcomes Framework

Numerator: Patients with stroke and transient ischaemic attack, as recorded on practice disease registers (Quality and Outcomes Framework).

Denominator: Total practice list size.

Capacity data

Workforce Full Time Equivalents (FTEs) in acute settings per 10,000 population

Numerator: Estimated FTEs in acute settings in each ICS for the month nearest to July each year.

Numerator source: NHS Workforce Statistics.

Calculation details: The csv file for the month closest to July are downloaded, and the csv file with the Staff Group and Organisation information is used. From this file, the FTEs are used for the calculation. Only the “Acute” Cluster Group is used, along with the “Total” Staff Grade. Other Cluster Groups are removed because the data quality is less reliable (for example, Ambulance Cluster Group attribute all FTEs to where the regional headquarters of the Ambulatory Service is located - this appears to be the case for Mental Health and Community Services Cluster Group too).

Each organisations FTE value is applied to an ICS using the trust to ICS estimation method described in the trust to ICS weighting section.

Denominator: Total registered population within General Practices in July each year.

Denominator source: NHS Patients registered at a GP Practice

Full Time Equivalent days sick per 10,000 population

These indicators are calculated for acute and mental health settings.

Numerator: Full-time equivalent sick days.

Numerator source: NHS ESR Sickness Absence for April 2009 to March 2022.

Numerator source: For April 2022 onwards, the monthly text files in the NHS Sickness absence rates publication are used.

Calculation details: The catchment-weighting process described in the trust to ICS weighting section is applied to organisations classified as one of the following by the Organisation Data Service:

  • Care trusts
  • Independent providers
  • Independent Sector Healthcare providers
  • NHS Trust

The proportions described are applied to each month and summed to each quarter to provide a quarterly value. Each quarter is then averaged to calculate an annual value.

Denominator: Total registered population within General Practices for each quarter in a year, which is averaged to calculate an annual value.

Full Time Equivalent days available per 100 population

Numerator: See Sickness Absence numerator details for information on the numerator for available days.

Denominator: See Sickness Absence denominator details for information on the denominator for available days.

Proportion of beds available

Source: NHS Bed Availability and Occupancy Statistics

Metrics calculated for the following bed types:

  • General and Acute (day and overnight)
  • Maternity (overnight)
  • Mental illness (overnight)

Calculation details: The catchment-weighting process described in the trust to ICS weighting section is applied to the data published at Trust level to estimate more representative ICS values for these metrics.

Numerator: Number of beds occupied.

Denominator: Number of beds available.

Total overnight general and acute beds per 1,000 population (60+ years)

Calculation details: The catchment-weighting process described in the trust to ICS weighting section is applied to the data published at Trust level to estimate more representative ICS values for these metrics.

Numerator: Count of available general and acute overnight beds.

Numerator source: NHS Bed Availability and Occupancy Statistics

Denominator: Patients aged 60 years and over who are registered at the general practice.

Denominator source: NHS Patients registered at a GP Practice

Mental Health spending per 100 population

Numerator: The numerators obtained from this source are:

  • Children and Young People Mental Health spend - excluding learning disabilities and eating disorders
  • Children and Young People Mental Health spend - eating disorders (£k)
  • Improving Access to Psychological Therapies spend (£k)
  • Early Intervention in Psychosis spend (£k)
  • Adult community crisis care spend (£k)
  • A and E and Ward Liaison mental health services spend (£k)
  • Mental health spend as a proportion of overall allocation
  • Mental Health total spend (£k)

Numerator source: NHS mental health dashboard

Denominator: Quarterly registered population within General Practices averaged to calculate an annual figure. This figure is multiplied by 100 for ease of understanding the calculated metric.

This denominator is used for all of the metrics described above except “mental health spend as a proportion of overall allocation”, as this data are provided as a proportion already so it does not require a denominator.

Primary care workforce per 100,000 population

Numerator: Total annual FTEs at the end of June (or the average of the two months nearest June if data for June are not published) for the following staff groups:

  • Admin/Non-Clinical
  • Direct Patient Care
  • GP
  • Nurses

Numerator source: General Practice Workforce

Denominator: Quarterly registered population within General Practices averaged to calculate an annual figure. This figure is multiplied by 100,000 for ease of understanding the calculated metric.

A&E full time equivalents per 100,000 population

Numerator: A&E full time equivalents for the following staff groups:

  • Care Providers
  • Consultants
  • Doctors
  • Nurses

Numerator source: Hospital accident and emergency activity

Denominator: All patients registered at general practices.

Denominator source: NHS Patients registered at a GP Practice

Mean proportion of beds that contain a patient with confirmed COVID

Numerator: Mean number of beds with a patient with confirmed COVID.

Numerator source: COVID-19 hospital activity

Denominator: Mean number of available beds.

Denominator source: NHS Bed Availability and Occupancy Statistics

Performance

Proportion of suspected cancer or referral to first definitive treatment that are longer than 62 days wait

Source: NHS Cancer Wait Times

This metric considers patients’ First Definitive Treatment for Cancer following an Urgent Suspected Cancer or Breast Symptomatic Referral, or Urgent Screening Referral, or Consultant Upgrade.

Numerator: Number of patients treated within the time frame.

Denominator: Total number of patients treated.

Proportion of A&E attendances that are greater than 4 hours

Source: NHS A&E Wait Times and Activity

This metric is only collated for Type 1 Departments - Major A&E attendances.

Calculation details: The same catchment-weighting process as described in the trust to ICS weighting section is applied to the data published at Trust level to estimate more representative ICS values for these metrics.

Numerator: A&E attendances greater than 4 hours from arrival to admission, transfer or discharge.

Denominator: Total A&E attendances.

Proportion of attended GP appointments with over 4 weeks wait time

Source: NHS Appointments in General Practice

Numerator: Total appointments within timeframe.

Denominator: Total appointments.

Proportion of Incomplete Referral to Treatment Pathways greater than 18 and 52 weeks from Referral

Source: NHS Referral to Treatment Waiting Times

Numerator: Total incomplete pathways that are 18 weeks or greater or 52 weeks or greater at the end of the reporting month, aggregated to year.

Denominator: Total incomplete pathways at the end of the reporting month, aggregated to year.

Geographical estimation methods

Trust to ICS estimations

Many of the publicly available statistics are published for the Trust.

A population weighting method is applied to these statistics based on the published Acute Trust Catchment Populations from the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities. These data provide an understanding of the proportion of patients that are admitted to each acute trust (by year) from each Middle layer Super Output Area (MSOA) for all types of admissions.

Where an organisation in this dataset has a catchment population published, its values are distributed among the MSOAs in the proportions described by the Trust’s catchment populations.

Where an organisation does not have a published catchment population, the two geographically nearest Trusts that do have published catchment populations within each year are identified. The catchments from these trusts are then applied to the unknown organisation’s value using a distance weighting (for example, if one trust is twice as near as the other trust, its catchment is weighted twice as strongly compared with the other trust when calculating the catchment for the unknown organisation).